Are the days of a family holiday to our beautiful part of the world coming to an end?
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Great Ocean Road Tourism chief Liz Price painted a grim picture this week when she revealed the average cost of Warrnambool accommodation, excluding caravan parks, had jumped from $220 a night in December 2019 to $312. In Port Fairy the jump was less, from $325 to $345 a night.
That puts us below the average of $374 a night along the length of the Great Ocean Road where it has skyrocketed from $290. Are looming state levies on short-stay accommodation contributing?
"I know the cost of doing business has gone through the roof and wages have increased but it is interesting we are significantly more expensive than we were in 2019," she said.
Are we at risk of killing the golden goose?
It's a question that was floated in Port Fairy about the cost of accommodation for the town's folk festival back in 2019.
But now it is being asked more broadly.
Tourism injects more than $200 million into the Warrnambool economy each year. After the demise of the textile industry, including our famous Fletcher Jones and Warrnambool Woollen Mill in the 1990s, a rise in international tourism helped prop up the region. Our economy has diversified significantly since then but tourism's value cannot be underestimated.
Ms Price fears we are "pricing ourselves out of the market" and anecdotal evidence backs that up with accommodation providers and hospitality operators telling us this week January was not the bumper month we had anticipated. Tourists stayed shorter periods and spent less, preferring to stay in rather than wine and dine at venues.
Cost of living pressures are of course biting.
But Ms Price fears holidaymakers can source cheaper and better accommodation in Melbourne where there are more free activities and entertainment.
If you were taking a holiday, it's natural to consider how much bang you will get for your buck.
For years Warrnambool City Council and other groups have campaigned for more international visitors who have come down the Great Ocean Road to stay in our region rather than head back to Melbourne after a day-trip. International tourism has not yet rebounded to pre-COVID pandemic levels but what happens if overseas holidaymakers raise eyebrows at the rising cost of accommodation here?
Recently we highlighted a welcome influx of international workers was bringing much-needed relief to business owners who have batted to find staff since we emerged from pandemic restrictions. But if accommodation costs continue to rise, where do these workers stay? If they don't stay in the region, we are back to where we were two summers ago - reduced opening hours and services.
This week we revealed an ambitious plan for a $200m eco resort and hot springs at the Twelve Apostles had been sold. Could the jump in prices at the lower end impact this?
Operators will charge whatever tourists are prepared to pay but Ms Price's concerns are genuine. We need to tread carefully, we can't kill the golden goose, there's too much at stake.