Victorian government forecast flat jobs growth for south-west

Statistics showed the forecast employment rate for the Great South Coast as 0.0 per cent for 2023-26. The only region expected to do worse over the same period was the Mallee-Southern Wimmera, immediately to the north, making western Victoria by far the worst region for jobs growth in the state.

The Standard asked the government why the region was expected to lag so badly, but it did not say.

"The top industries within the Great South Coast region expecting new workers are health care and social assistance; accommodation and food services; and the professional, scientific and technical services," a spokesperson said.

"Occupations with the highest number of new workers expected by 2026 include ageing and disability carers, university lecturers and tutors, registered nurses and livestock farmers."

The data predicts nearly 4000 new jobs in the region by 2026, but almost the same number of retirements in a workforce of 56,500 people.

Only five fields were on track for net growth during the period. Healthcare was expected to grow at nearly 2 per cent and add almost 500 jobs, with aged care workers and nurses the top professions, while accommodation and hospitality was forecast to boom at 3.2 per cent annual growth for a net increase of 300 jobs.

Professional, scientific and technical services were on track for 1.4 per cent growth, transport jobs were expected to have 0.9 per cent growth, and manufacturing was almost stagnant at 0.2 per cent growth.

A further five fields were predicted to decline by 2026. Chief among them was agriculture, forestry and fishing, with more than 400 jobs forecast to disappear as the sector shrinks at a rate of 1.2 per cent per year. Retail was also set to continue its recent decline, shrinking at 1.7 per cent per year for an overall loss of 250 local jobs.

Construction was also forecast to lose more than 150 local workers, and education and training was predicted to lose about 80 jobs.

While the government couldn't offer any reasons for the zero growth scenario, it's worth noting the south-west has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country, with just 1.3 per cent of the workforce looking for a job.

Treasurer Tim Pallas hailed the low regional unemployment figure on October 26 as a sign the local economies were creating plenty of jobs, but the skills plan suggests the truth may be more complex.

Local councils and major south-west employers have said how difficult they are finding it to recruit new workers in the past year or two. In particular, they have said it's almost impossible to lure people from outside the region because the rock-bottom rental vacancy rate means it's impossible to find accommodation.

Farmers have expressed similar frustrations, often finding government obstacles to creating housing for workers on their own private land.

The skills plan singled out regional Victoria as a beneficiary of the state's renewable energy transition, arguing a large share of the forecast 59,000 green jobs to be created by 2035 will land outside metro Melbourne.

Deakin University and South West TAFE have spoken of the strong prospect Warrnambool could be a green energy hub, but that future student and graduate growth will likely hinge on the housing market finding a place for them.

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