Areas of south-west experience warmest and driest September

Both sites also experienced their warmest September day on record with Port Fairy reaching 29.6 degrees and Warrnambool topping 27.8 degrees on September 30 - AFL grand final day.

The temperatures were well above their September average which both hover around 16 degrees.

Bureau of Meteorology senior climatologist Jonathan Pollock said September 2023 was the warmest and driest September in Victoria since records began.

He said Warrnambool, Port Fairy and Colac were among many weather stations across the state which set new mean maximum temperature records.

"Warrnambool Airport had its lowest September rainfall on record with 30.6 mm compared to a long-term average of 73.2 mm," he said. "And Port Fairy had its driest September too, with just 25.3mm compared to a long-term average of 67.2 mm."

Mr Pollock said the "two big seasonal drivers" responsible for the conditions were a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and El Nino.

"We also have global warming impacting Australia's climate as well, so some of that record warmth would be attributed to that increasing warming trend," he said.

Looking ahead Mr Pollock said below median rainfall was likely across Victoria during October to December.

He said long-range forecast computer modelling showed a 71 per cent chance of a drier-than-average October to December for Warrnambool.

"There are high chances across most of Victoria that mean maximum temperatures will be above median during October to December," he said. "There are high chances mean minimum temperatures will be above median for parts of the south and the east."

Mr Pollock said while parts of eastern Victoria had record-high daily rainfall for October in the 24 hours to 9am Wednesday, October 4, most south-west sites had less than 5mm.

He said the south-west's spring bushfire outlook showed a "normal fire risk", similar to the risk in recent decades.

"But as we move to summer that fire risk will increase," he said.

Other data from September 2023 found Warrnambool's highest daily rainfall was 7.2mm on Friday, September 8 when severe storms lashed the city and wind gusts reached 106 km/h. It was also the lowest daily maximum temperature, getting to a top of just 12 degrees.

In 2022, the city's maximum daily temperature was 19.4 degrees on September 9 and the coldest day was September 2 when the city reached a high of just 12.5 degrees.

Port Fairy's coldest day was September 8 when temperatures reached just 12.2 degrees, recording wind gusts of 109 km/h as the same storms rolled through.

Port Fairy experienced above average September daily temperatures than the high of 16.7 degrees and low maximum of 8.3 degrees.

Hamilton reached a top of 27.7 degrees on September 30, 2023 and its coldest day was September 8 when it got to just 9.3 degrees.

The town received 13mm of rain on September 8, half its September 2023 rainfall total of 28mm and well below its average monthly rainfall of 75mm.

Meanwhile, Mortlake reached a high of 28.4 degrees on September 30 and a maximum low of 10.8 degrees on September 8 when it recorded 80km/h windgusts and the highest daily rainfall of 9.6mm.

Its total September rainfall was 28mm, about half of its monthly average of 59mm.

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