Warrnambool City Council releases draft flood maps for South Warrnambool

The new maps chart one per cent annual exceedance probability (AEP) - roughly equivalent to what used to be called a 'one-in-100-year event'. The data suggests higher potential flood levels than the previous estimates from 2007.

The final version will use more advanced climate change modelling than was possible 15 years ago. A council spokesman said recent storm tide floods had provided highly reliable flood data which was also being used in the modelling.

"This means we can have greater confidence that the latest model accurately reflects what actually happens when South Warrnambool is affected by floods," he told The Standard.

Council design engineer Peter Reid said the earlier model wasn't built with these considerations in mind.

"We don't have a good model at this point and that's the main reason why we're doing this study," he said. "We've got to be confident that the model is a representation of what's happening right now."

Warrnambool has a long history of flooding, with major events in 1946, 2000 and most recently in 2020. The region is particularly vulnerable to oceanic and storm surge effects.

The council sought feedback on the draft in a community session on June 7 to have the data 'calibrated' against on-ground observations from residents.

Some locals voiced concerns about flooding impacts from new housing developments and questioned what affect the mapping would have on insurance bills.

Presenter Michael South said he was very happy with the number of people who attended the event.

"The rest of this month and July we'll update the model with any feedback we get," he said.

The final mapping will be presented in September, while the council gathers ideas for assessing structural options in the affected areas with the outcomes of the completed study due to be presented in December.

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