We are already at the time in the political cycle where the Prime Minister is fair game for having an ice cream and beer in public.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
or signup to continue reading
Whether the nation's leader should hold a hose, or not, or hang out with people in a town suffering alcohol problems and bitter division, or not, points to the meta difficulties for Anthony Albanese this year.
Post-pandemic, post-Black Summer bushfires, revolving door politics, stirred up by a charged 24 second media cycle, is in perpetual crisis mode. There is no downtime, no matter what. Leadership is in demand.
2023 has come crashing in fast. It is going to be a huge, challenging mid-term year. The Albanese government is not old and it is not new. The "me too" rhetoric that got Labor into power is not going to fly.
Even for a government still riding high from wrenching power from opposition, reality hit a few months ago. It has to start making its own path and it does have big agenda.
It will be a year to make or break careers and define relations with First Nations people for decades to come.
No pressure now.
READ MORE
Pick one gladiatorial arena: Cost of living, climate action, energy security, environmental standards, industrial relations reform, health funding and Medicare reform and constitutional recognition for Indigenous people.
The opposition is finding its groove in opposing, the crossbench want to make its mark, and The Greens have drawn their red line for dealing with the Labor government: new coal and gas projects.
With Federal Parliament returning from the summer break on Monday, expectations are still reasonably high, after replacing a government that had run out of ideas apart from the novel one of a Prime Minister holding multiple secret ministries.
There are big reviews on higher education and defence and the Employment White Paper is due in September. The Albanese government wants to pass legislation as soon as possible to establish the Housing Australia Future Fund, the Housing Supply and Affordability Council and the National Reconstruction Fund. As well, amendments to extending paid parental leave are being debated in the House and need to pass ahead of its intended start in July.
But climate action continues to pull Labor in more than one direction. Greens and the Coalition will both have problems with the proposed redesign of the so-called safeguard mechanism, which would get major polluters to cut emissions about 5 per cent each year through to 2030.
Tough enough? Too tough?
The Tony Abbott-era scheme intended to put a ceiling on emissions at the nation's heaviest industrial polluters could be dealt with through regulation, but the Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen wants enabling legislation passed by the first half of this year to help Australia meet its 2030 and 2050 emissions targets. By the end of March if possible.
There's the need for enabling legislation to hold the Voice referendum. Every step of this and every other attempt at constitutional change is fraught.
And reforms to whistleblower laws need to happen, if they are going to happen, before the introduction of the National Anti-Corruption Commission in the middle of the year. Long put in the too hard basket, this will be a test for Labor as it stood as a champion of transparency and accountability in opposition.
The economy will colour everything and Labor's first non-reset budget in May will be a critical moment.
Jim Chalmers and Katy Gallagher have to address the spiralling cost of living, servicing a mountain of debt, an overburdened health system, an unsustainable NDIS and a big question about government revenue, while sticking to not introducing new taxes and holding onto those Morrison government stage three tax cuts, no matter what.
Has inflation peaked at a 32-year high? The Reserve Bank says so and the government hopes so, regardless, financial pain is out there and the people feeling it - borrowers, renters, eaters - are looking for answers and assistance.
Calls are growing to raise the rates of JobSeeker and the parenting and carer payments, perhaps to $88 a day as some welfare and women's groups want.
But some change is already on the cards: gender-responsive budgeting, embedding gender equality in the design of policy and government decision making.
The second tranche of industrial relations reform is coming as well with the most controversial parts saved for the second half of the year.
After "Secure Jobs, Better Pay", parliament will tackle "same job, same pay". And more.
Up for consultation now: the definition of a casual employee, dealing with the gig economy, wage theft, stronger protections against discrimination, acting on the dangers of silica dust, moving on safety and standards for long haul drivers, and creating a low-cost jurisdiction at the Fair Work Commission.
Another real test for the second half of the year, will be the substantial reform to the contentious and "broken" Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act which is used to approve or knock back projects or developments such as mines, land clearing and forestry.
Clearer national environmental standards and a beefed up federal Environment Protection Agency may be a challenge for Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek to get through cabinet and then past the Greens. The Greens really want a climate trigger in the assessment of projects and developments.
While not exactly united on all issues, the minor party has never been better represented in federal parliament and is flexing its collective muscles, particularly in the Senate.
And all eyes will be on the key Senate balance of power crossbenchers, particularly the ACT's David Pocock, Jacqui Lambie and Tammy Tyrrell.
The Coalition is growing in confidence as well after being smashed at the last election and having the secret ministries scandal and former ministers appear as witnesses at the Robodebt Royal Commission hearings.
The opposition is trying to tap into the doubt about the proposed Voice no matter how disruptive and perhaps destructive.
The Voice to Parliament is not Mr Albanese's creation, but he has to guide it though. He may well "own it" if it goes down.
Even for a government still riding high from wrenching power from opposition, reality is about to hit as it enters its mid-term and charts its own path.