Ripple effects of Scott Morrison and John Barilaro controversies will last to the next elections

Scott Morrison has been defeated, leaving the Coalition leadership with Peter Dutton, while John Barilaro has resigned leaving Premier Dominic Perrottet to fight for his Coalition government's survival at the next state election.

There are similarities in these controversies, but they are rarely drawn out, because our media gaze is so concentrated on single issues that we often don't see the bigger picture.

Both are stories about our cosy, insider politics filled with jobs, mates, and weird individuals. All of it is covered up by secrecy and the truth is difficult to extract.

There is no doubt that Morrison's decisions to allocate himself five extra portfolios was seriously weird. So weird that it casts doubt upon his character and personal integrity.

Equally weird was his conclusion that there was no need for these decisions to be made public or even, in most cases, to be communicated to the ministers already holding those portfolios.

What he did do was to mention some of what had happened to two journalists writing a book about Australian politics during the COVID-19 pandemic. Without the publication of Plagued by Simon Benson and Geoff Chambers, the unravelling of the weird events would not have begun.

None of Morrison's subsequent explanations for his actions are at all persuasive, least of all his explanation for the secrecy. Further enquiries have addressed some of the legal and constitutional issues and everyone laments the secrecy, but explaining his mindset defies explanation.

Was it about power or status, or lack of trust in his colleagues? Was it caused by stress or self-delusion? We may never know.

Morrison casts himself as a victim of those who either don't understand the circumstances or wish to bring him down.

Many of his colleagues are unconvinced; one is calling for his resignation from parliament; another is asking him to reflect on his position. Both these colleagues are women, another bad sign for a party with an enduring 'woman problem'.

There is also weirdness at the heart of the Barilaro affair. He is a controversial figure, whose resignation as deputy premier and Nationals leader was sudden, unexpected, and not well explained.

Matt Kean, the NSW Treasurer, one of his opponents within the NSW government, offered a derisory character assessment of him before a budget estimates parliamentary hearing this week.

Under pressure to defend his own role in the controversy, Kean recalled that he received many "strange and wacky" requests from Barilaro, who, he said, made "lots of outlandish claims that weren't genuine".

Barilaro's appointment to a lucrative NSW trade position in New York, from which he stepped down after two weeks of public outrage, has still not been fully explained.

Barilaro himself, like Morrison, claims to be a victim because all he did, he says, was apply for an advertised vacancy in the usual way. In doing so he called on prominent referees and supporters from inside the government, however.

The evidence suggests that more than that was involved, and that he manoeuvred himself into the position with the connivance of some government supporters.

Was it just another case of self-interested jobs for the boys or was it worse than that, involving manipulation and abuse of due process?

Secrecy complicates these cases. Defenders of both men say that either there is nothing out of the ordinary or, if so, they are just bubble issues that the public should not worry about. These responses fly in the face of the available evidence.

When all the enquiries are complete, we may know more; but the opaque nature of politics means only a partial picture is ever likely.

What we may know more about, however, is just what business as usual means in politics and government. It is not a pretty picture, unfortunately.

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The ripple effects are enormous and keep growing, damaging government, parliamentary and public service careers and reputations. No one who played a role can escape scrutiny. Ultimately public trust in government is hurt.

Morrison's own reputation has been further shredded. The insights offered by his former deputy prime minister, Barnaby Joyce, only added to the damage by describing a vengeful prime minister who would stop at nothing to get his way.

Within the federal Liberal Party stresses and strains are growing among shadow ministers, already divided following the federal election loss. There is no collective opposition view and Dutton is vacillating.

Within the NSW Liberal Party the responsible minister, Stuart Ayres, the former deputy leader, has already resigned. The Premier is struggling hard to distance himself from the whole affair.

In both the federal and state arenas the actions of many senior public servants have been called into question. Either they were kept in the dark or they colluded with their ministers by not offering frank and fearless advice when it was necessary. That remains unclear.

The Governor-General has been dragged into debate about his role; clarification of the exact relationship, on an administrative level, that he and his office have with the Prime Minister's department and office is badly needed. Too much is unclear here too.

The ultimate ripple is electoral. Both Dutton and Perrottet are in trouble. Dutton has time on his side to let memories fade. Perrottet does not; and it may bring him down.