What's on the table for defeated Liberals?

The new opposition frontbench has sketched the future for those still in Parliament. Some, like former immigration minister Alex Hawke, have been passed over by the new leader, Peter Dutton. Others, like former foreign affairs minister Senator Marise Payne, have effectively signalled their attention to retire soon.

Many more, including former senior ministers, now must come to grips with life outside politics, at least in the short term. This is a necessary element of a functioning democratic system. Those who lose their seats are now surplus to requirements and, unless they are of retirement age, they must face the job market.

What are their options? Not only have they lost their own seats, which is a catastrophe, but they have suffered the double hit of their party losing government. They face a future in which the new government is unlikely to help them out with a juicy diplomatic or Administrative Appeals Tribunal appointment.

This is not to downplay the personal skills and experience which many of them bring to the job market. Few ex-politicians miss out altogether, because they do have a lot to offer. Some have previous professions or careers to which they may be able to return.

The first decision for a former politician is to decide whether they treat the loss as a temporary setback to a political career or a sign of a complete career change. This decision will be influenced by their age and by how long they have been in Parliament. Do they remain ambitious beyond what they have already achieved?

What avenues they see before them to get back into politics are also crucial. This depends on the characteristics of their former seat. Were they beaten by a teal independent or by Labor or the Greens? It also depends on whether the new Albanese government will be a one-term government or a much longer-term government. Can they realistically return to Parliament if Labor wins again in 2025?

Josh Frydenberg, the Liberals' former deputy leader and treasurer, is a special case. He was touted as a future prime minister, and may well have been the opposition leader right now if he hadn't been defeated in Kooyong to an independent.

Young ministers like Ben Morton and Tim Wilson looked like they were beginning a long career. Morton lost the safe seat of Tangney to Labor, while Wilson lost his safe seat of Goldstein to another teal independent, Zoe Daniel. Queensland senator Amanda Stoker and ACT senator Zed Seselja were at similar stages of their careers as up-and-coming ministers.

The three Sydney backbenchers Dave Sharma, Jason Falinski and Trent Zimmerman all lost safe Liberal seats to teal independents.

The decision to persevere in politics or to walk away need not be made immediately. In fact, taking time to decide may be advisable. It will also be a family decision, rather than a personal one, in many cases. Advice from the Liberal Party organisation will also be critical. Are they almost guaranteed another try, or will they have to fight for preselection?

The choices made may be transitional, or they may have a sense of permanence about them. The signals they send to the party apparatus will be crucial.

The most likely quick way back into Federal Parliament is through a Senate retirement. This doesn't require a by-election. Senator Sarah Henderson re-entered Parliament this way after being defeated in the Victorian seat of Corangamite in 2019. Factional politics plays a part, but a moderate Liberal could be chosen if a moderate senator, such as Marise Payne, chose to retire over the next year or two.

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Some defeated Liberals might choose to try again in 2025 in the seats they have lost. But three years is a long time to wait, and only a small number of MPs re-enter Parliament in this fashion. To make it easier while waiting, several political options are available. One is to take a staff job with a current MP. This is possible in opposition, but less likely than when the party is in government when more jobs are available.

State politics might also be an avenue for one or two, though it might be seen as a "come down" to a lower level for them. There are Victorian and NSW state elections coming up. Don't be surprised if one of those defeated stands. But there are hurdles to jump. Would they mind being parachuted into a marginal seat? Do they have the gumption and/or inclination to bounce back so soon?

There is also the consultant/lobbyist option. There are quite a few Liberal-friendly lobbying firms who hire former MPs and ministers. Several former ministers from the Howard era, including Peter Costello and Alexander Downer, began their own lobbying firms. I expect some defeated Liberals to take this route.

The corporate and professional worlds are other options for a career change. Former NSW premier Gladys Berejiklian resisted the offer to stand for the federal Liberals, and joined Optus as a senior executive. Retired federal minister Christian Porter returned to the law.

The fact is that most of those defeated last month will never return to Parliament. History tells us that. A couple probably will, while a few others will try but fail again. The majority will move on to other things.

Some of them will be a real loss. Most can be replaced. Politics should in most cases not be a lifelong career anyway.