Warrnambool is expected to receive between 10mm and 200, mainly from 2pm

There's a 95 per cent chance of showers and there could be a thunderstorm, most likely during this afternoon and evening.

The tip is for between 10mm and 20mm of rain.

There's a 20 per cent chance of rain from 11am, but you can lock it in (90 per cent chance) from 2pm right through until 11pm.

It will be humid, partly cloudy and light winds will become south-westerly 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day before shifting north-easterly 15 to 25 km/h in the late afternoon.

A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea, combined with a low pressure system off the NSW coast are resulting in a warm, humid easterly airstream across Victoria.

A low pressure trough and associated upper low over the Bight will move slowly east today, reaching south-western Victoria tonight before crossing the rest of the state on Saturday.

A south to south-easterly airstream will then become established over Victoria which will continue into Sunday as a high pressure system over the Southern Ocean moves to the south of Tasmania.

The high will move over the Tasman Sea on Monday as a weak cold front approaches Tasmania.

Warrnambool is expecting a top of 28 degrees, with other centres across the south-west ranging from 25 (Portland and Port Fairy) to 29 at Colac.

The Bureau Of Meteorology is saying more showers for Warrnambool tomorrow with a 70 chance of rain, tipping between 2.4mm and 6mm and a top of 23 degrees.

Sunday will be a cloudy but mostly fine 20, Monday cloudy 23, Tuesday cloudy 20, Wednesday a partly cloudy 20 and Thursday a partly cloudy 23.

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