Warrnambool and south-west likely to hit 80 per cent fully vaccinated by early November

Ever since the release of the revamped national COVID-19 roadmap in July, it has been the magic number, the key to returning to some kind of "normal".

As the Andrews government prepares to release its own roadmap on Sunday and the south-west leads the state for vaccinations, two big questions arise: When will the south-west hit the magic number with 80 per cent of eligible adults double dosed? And will it really mean a return to normal daily life?

An analysis of regional vaccination data by The Standard shows the south-west may hit the threshold by the start of November, but this is based on two assumptions holding true: first, that vaccine supply remains steady, and second, that basically everybody who received their first dose of the vaccine also gets a second jab.

Monash University data analytics expert Dr Behrooz Hassani Mahmooei said while second dose numbers were more unpredictable than first doses, the numbers in regional areas like the south-west were more steady.

He said recent data suggests Warrnambool and the south-west may have already exceeded 80 per cent first dose coverage and there was "no statistical evidence that people who got their first dose aren't getting their second", which meant second doses would probably follow a similar path.

Dr Hassani Mahmooei said it was possible that Melbourne's growing outbreak could cause vaccines to be diverted to specific metropolitan areas, which could affect supply to the regions. But he said that as weekly first dose rates drop off the supply of second doses could even start to rise.

Daniel Andrews has kept tight-lipped on what meeting the threshold will mean for the daily lives of Victorians, other than saying "the notion of a lockout of the whole community (will be) far less relevant".

But south-west residents will have to wait for the rest of the state to catch up, with Victoria unlikely to hit 80 per cent until late November.