The Western Bulldogs and Melbourne have set a hot pace in 2021, but at least three other teams are in the premiership race.
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ADELAIDE (15th, 5-10, 84.2%)
2021 stars: Ben Keays, Rory Laird, Taylor Walker
The Crows were flying early in the season, with key forward Walker leading the way. They play four of the remaining seven games at home, with their best chances of winning against West Coast, Hawthorn and North Melbourne.
BRISBANE (3rd, 11-4, 134.7%)
2021 stars: Harris Andrews, Jarryd Lyons, Hugh McCluggage
The Lions have overcome a tardy start to the season and loom as a genuine premiership contender, although still a query against top opposition on the road. Midfield runs deep and Joe Daniher has been an excellent addition as key forward and back-up ruckman.
CARLTON (13th, 6-9, 93.0%)
2021 stars: Harry McKay, Sam Walsh, Jacob Weitering
Disappointing season so far with an external review of the football department already under way, but the Blues have won their past two games and have a friendly draw. Prolific midfielder Walsh has been sensational, key defender Weitering so consistent and McKay the AFL's leading goalkicker.
COLLINGWOOD (16th, 4-11, 89.5%)
2021 stars: Jack Crisp, Darcy Moore, Scott Pendlebury
Coach Nathan Buckley is gone and there is plenty of uncertainty off the field. The absence of Moore and Jeremy Howe creates huge holes in defence, but several youngsters are showing promising signs and will be given plenty of opportunities in the remaining games.
ESSENDON (12th, 6-9, 98.7%)
2021 stars: Nick Hind, Darcy Parish, Zach Merrett
Plenty to excite the red and black faithful under coach Ben Rutten. Stars would have to align to secure an unlikely finals berth, but their youngsters have been impressive. Parish is in career-best form and Merrett has confirmed his faith in the future by committing long term.
FREMANTLE (10th, 7-8, 92.2%)
2021 stars: Andrew Brayshaw, Sean Darcy, David Mundy
Despite losing to Carlton last Saturday, the Dockers remain a genuine chance of playing finals for the first time since 2015. Five of their remaining games are scheduled at home, including crucial clashes against fellow finals aspirants West Coast and Richmond. But they have won only once against top-eight teams.
GEELONG (5th, 11-4, 123.4%)
2021 stars: Cameron Guthrie, Tom Hawkins, Tom Stewart
The Cats have the firepower in attack and midfield class to go one better than last year and a top-four finish beckons with a favourable run home. But injured midfielder Mitch Duncan leaves a big hole and there are lingering doubts about their ageing list going the distance.
GOLD COAST (14th, 5-10, 88.0%)
2021 stars: Hugh Greenwood, Ben King, Touk Miller
Face a tough run home as they play four top-eight teams, but the fighting win over Richmond should provide much-needed confidence. Co-captain Jarrod Witts' knee injury early in the season was a massive blow, while the shining lights have been hard-working midfielder Miller and King in attack.
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY (8th, 7-1-7, 97.1%)
2021 stars: Toby Greene, Jacob Hopper, Josh Kelly
The inconsistent Giants are back in the eight after a gritty win over Melbourne, but they face a tough run home. They hope to play four of their remaining games at home in Sydney and Canberra. Midfielder Hopper has been awesome, along with match-winner Greene.
HAWTHORN (17th, 4-11, 80.7%)
2021 stars: Tom Mitchell, Jaeger O'Meara, Jack Scrimshaw
Despite missing stars James Sicily and Jack Gunston at either end of the ground, the rebuilding Hawks have shown signs of improvement, with youngsters such as Will Day and Changkuoth Jiath impressing. But they face a tough run home.
MELBOURNE (2nd, 12-3, 128.5%)
2021 stars: Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca
The Demons have rocketed up the ladder this season on the back of a powerful midfield led by Gawn, Oliver and Petracca and a solid defensive unit spearheaded by Steven May and Jake Lever. But after a shock loss at home to GWS, the Demons' hold on a top-four spot suddenly appears tenuous.
NORTH MELBOURNE (18th, 2-1-12, 64.3%)
2021 stars: Ben Cunnington, Todd Goldstein, Aaron Hall
The wooden-spoon favourites made a slow start to 2021, but the Kangaroos have picked up their form as the season has progressed. Midfielder Cunnington and key defender Robbie Tarrant have made welcome returns to an inexperienced line-up.
PORT ADELAIDE (4th, 11-4, 124.4%)
2021 stars: Allir Allir, Travis Boak, Ollie Wines
Remain in strong contention for a top-four finish after winning their past three games. Wines and Boak have been superb again and Zak Butters will return soon to bolster the midfield. They hope to regain several key players including Robbie Gray back before the finals.
RICHMOND (9th, 7-8, 100.6%)
2021 stars: Shai Bolton, Dustin Martin, Jack Riewoldt
Their title defence is faltering badly and the aura of invincibility has deserted the Tigers as they are in danger of missing the finals. Run home is not that daunting, but key players are either injured or out of form. The dream of three consecutive flags is over.
ST KILDA (11th, 7-8, 83.7%)
2021 stars: Dougal Howard, Jack Sinclair, Jack Steele
After struggling in the first half of the year, the Saints have rediscovered their mojo since the mid-season bye and are suddenly knocking on the door of the eight. Ruckman Rowan Marshall is pivotal to their fortunes, but they have a tough run home.
SYDNEY (6th, 9-6, 114.5%)
2021 stars: Oliver Florent, Lance Franklin, Tom Hickey
Have surprised many pundits by their rapid rise this season and appear certain to return to the finals after languishing near the bottom for the past two years. Youngsters have made marked improvement, while their older players such as Franklin are still providing good value.
WEST COAST (7th, 8-7, 95.3%)
2021 stars: Tom Barrass, Andrew Gaff, Nic Naitanui
After being thrashed in successive weeks by the Bulldogs and Swans, the Eagles are no certainties to make the finals. They have one of the best midfields when they are fit and firing and firepower in attack led by Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling, but they have been too inconsistent recently.
WESTERN BULLDOGS (1st, 12-3, 147.6%)
2021 stars: Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Liberatore, Jack Macrae
Appear on track for a top-two finish. Skipper Bontempelli is favourite for the Brownlow Medal and midfield cohorts led by Liberatore and Macrae have been in scintillating form. Their return bout against Melbourne in round 20 at the MCG will be a pointer to September fortunes.
Has Howard got it right? Email: howardkotton11@gmail.com; Twitter: @hpkotton59.
- This article is supported by the Judith Neilson Institute for Journalism and Ideas