AS baseball economist Peter Brand muses in the 2011 film Moneyball, sports teams tend to think in terms of buying players when they should be looking at buying wins.
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The Oakland Athletics famed front office structure - which focuses on recruiting undervalued players as well using data over reputation to evaluate players - isn't really tailor-made for a sport like footy.
Perhaps it is at an elite level, but it's nigh on impossible to do so at Warrnambool and District league or Hampden league level as detailed statistics are not readily available.
In Major League Baseball, buying wins is only possible if you're buying home runs. In footy, buying wins would come in the form of buying goals. It's more complicated - because baseball is batter versus pitcher - while footy has a whole host of other factors at play. Clearances play a part, while contested ball and disposal efficiency before that are key.
But let's get back to undervalued players. While it's subjective as to who is underrated, it's still somehow more measurable to trust the eye at community level without an abundance of data.
With that in mind, the key to Russells Creek's season and bid for its first finals appearance in a decade might hinge on one key player above all else. Jyran Chatfield.
The sharpshooter has always had an eye for goal but has probably suffered from a lack of quality further up the field in teams he's featured in. That's no disrespect at all to any player who has suited up at East Warrnambool, where Chatfield played from 2016 until 2019. The reality is just now, the full-forward has a wealth of midfield depth capable of hitting him lace-out thanks to Creek's big summer recruiting drive.
Daniel Nicholson - one of the most high-profile Warrnambool and District league signings of the past decade - is leading the charge while Xavier McCartney, Taylem Wason and Sam Alberts are all capable onballers too.
Sometimes forwards are only as good as the midfielders hitting them on the chest.
In footy, buying wins would come in the form of buying goals.
In Chatfield, Creek has signed a player who will bring goals. If footy economics are correct, this should correlate to wins.
Chatfield is still arguably one of south-west footy's most underrated prospects despite his proven ability to find the big sticks.
But how much longer will that last?
His average of 5.6 goals a game in 2021 has him in with a shot of doubling his previous best tally of 43 in 2016.
If he can keep his kicking boots on, those goals might just be the tonic Creek needs to turn goals into wins.
It's not a perfect 'Moneyball' narrative. Nothing outside baseball really could be.
But in this talented full-forward, Creek might have a diamond in the rough.
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